Michigan MICH. Baylor BAY. Duke DUKE. Ohio State OSU. Oregon ORE. Texas TEX. Louisville LOU. Memphis MEM. West Virginia WVU. Arkansas ARK. Iowa IOWA. Bonaventure SBU. Florida FLA. Richmond RICH. Michigan State MSU. Notre Dame ND. John's SJU. Syracuse SYR. Providence PROV. The lone loss came on Jan. On the opposite end of the spectrum, teams with a relatively low win probability between 50 and Overall, the BPI correctly picked the winner in 88 of games.
In order to determine the accuracy of the predicted margin of victory, Hawgs compared the BPI to the most dependable source of sports predictions in the history of mankind: Las Vegas. We used the point spreads compiled on OddsShark. There are arguments every year regarding fringe teams.
Each one basically puts these together in slightly different ways and arrives at slightly different results. RPI, due to its simplicity, tends to be the biggest decision aid for the NCAA tournament committee, even though it doesn't account for the actual scores of games. Kenpom and our BPI system both account for the varying pace that teams can play, which is an important analytical component of evaluating basketball teams.
But we believe the BPI is a little more refined than any other existing power ranking. On top of this, we decided to incorporate a little bit more information than the other power ranking systems use.
In particular, we added a way of accounting for missing players. If a team or its opponent is missing one of its most important players determined by minutes per game for a contest, that game is less important for ranking the teams compared to games in which both teams are at full strength. Every season has teams for whom missing players can be important. In , for example, Syracuse center Fab Melo missed three games in the middle of the season and, in that stretch, the Orange lost their first game of the year.
He returned for the rest of the regular season and Syracuse lost only once more — in the Big East Conference Tournament. Over all these games, the three games without Melo get weighted a little less — in proportion to how much he played regularly — towards their season BPI. This means that the loss to Notre Dame while he was out, though it lowers Syracuse's BPI, lowers it less than had they lost by the same amount with him in the lineup.
BPI is available on a game-by-game basis, so you can look at the three games that Melo missed and see what Syracuse's BPI was in those games— it was 41 against Notre Dame, 96 against Cincinnati, and 84 against West Virginia, for an average of If Melo hadn't missed any games during the season, one could still look at games where he played relatively few minutes to see if there was an effect. Another way that BPI can rank teams differently than Sagarin or Kenpom is counting close games at home versus on the road.
In BPI, a close win at home is better than a close loss on the road against the same opponent.
0コメント